Guest Essay: If Not Natural Gas from Centralia, Then What Will Keep the Lights On?

By Kurt Miller

(Vancouver, WA) - - Washington is facing a growing shortage of dependable electricity. Yet environmental groups and staff at the state’s utility commission want regulators to reject a proposal to convert Centralia’s idled coal plant to natural gas. They say cheaper, cleaner alternatives are available.

But what are they? And can they keep our homes warm during a prolonged winter cold snap?

TransAlta plans to convert the plant to supply Puget Sound Energy beginning in 2028. The deal would provide about 700 megawatts of capacity from a site that already has transmission lines, land, and other infrastructure that can take years to develop elsewhere.

Wind, solar, batteries and conservation are all part of the solution. But producing inexpensive electricity on a typical day is very different from keeping the power on through five days of freezing weather.

During a severe cold snap, electricity demand surges while wind output can drop and short winter days limit solar production. Combine that with a low hydropower year, and you have a recipe for a major electricity shortage. Batteries can help, but they need electricity to recharge, and neighboring states may have little power to spare.

An April study by energy consulting firm E3 identified prolonged winter cold snaps during low water years as the Northwest’s greatest reliability challenge. Its analysis included new natural gas generation among the resources needed to maintain reliable service.

Electricity shortages don't just threaten to turn out the lights. They also drive up costs. When supplies are tight, wholesale prices can soar as utilities compete for scarce power. Those costs eventually show up in customers’ bills. And when there simply isn't enough electricity available at any price, homes, schools and businesses face outages.

In a July 27 Seattle Times guest opinion, KC Golden, one of Washington’s representatives on the Northwest Power and Conservation Council, described the region’s electricity grid as having “manageable, moderate risks.”

Golden wasn’t alone in his confidence. In September comments to the Council, the NW Energy Coalition wrote that “in a time when the headlines say the sky is falling,” it had “great confidence” in the Council’s draft power plan.

The Council, the four-state agency responsible for regional power planning, recommended 2,100 megawatts of additional natural gas generation in its draft Ninth Power Plan. My organization, the Northwest Public Power Association, warned that its reliability conclusions were more reassuring than its analysis justified, given warnings from regional grid operators and reliability monitors.

Then the picture changed.

At an October 23 Council Power Committee meeting, staff disclosed that the Council’s hydropower model had overestimated water flows at Grand Coulee Dam by roughly 40%. Staff indicated that correcting the error would likely reveal a need for thousands of additional megawatts of generation. The Council is preparing a revised draft.

Golden's assurances rested on a planning analysis that we now know substantially overstated the region's hydropower supplies.

The full impact remains to be seen. But if correcting the error reveals a need for thousands of additional megawatts, perhaps those “sky is falling” headlines weren’t so alarmist after all.

And that makes the decision about Centralia all the more consequential.

Ironically, in 2011, as described in the Washington Department of Ecology's own words, "The Governor, TransAlta, environmental groups, and the local community worked together to transition from coal to natural gas." The legislation even provided expedited permitting and exemptions from state carbon mitigation requirements for new natural gas generation intended to replace the coal plant.

Nobody should approve Centralia’s conversion without examining its costs, environmental impacts, and benefits to customers. That includes the value of having dependable generation available when electricity is scarce and market prices are soaring. They should compare what the alternatives cost and whether they can deliver power during a prolonged winter emergency.

Washington’s clean energy goals matter. But so does keeping the heat on during a January cold snap, and so does keeping electricity bills affordable.

Before regulators turn down Centralia, customers deserve an answer: What is the cheaper, cleaner option that can reliably take its place?

Kurt Miller is the CEO and Executive Director of the Northwest Public Power Association, serving over 150 community-owned electric utilities across 10 Western states. 

WA PDC complaints filed against Jefferson County Public Utility District (Peninsula Daily News)

Published 1:30 am Wednesday, July 1, 2026

By Emily Hanson Peninsula Daily News

PORT TOWNSEND — Two complaints have been filed with the state Public Disclosure Commission against Jefferson County PUD.

The complaints were filed on June 20 after PUD customers received their bills with a flier supporting the Jefferson County Proposition 1 Parks and Rec Levy, which is on the August primary ballot. The first complaint came from Shona Davis, who questioned whether public funds were used by Jefferson County PUD to pay for the fliers. Crystal Cox filed the second complaint for the same issue.

“Jefferson County Public Utility District is using publicly funded resources to promote a ballot measure, a levy which violates state laws prohibiting the use of public facilities or funds for campaign activity,” Cox wrote in her complaint.

Cox cited RCW 42.17A.555, “which prohibits the use of ‘public office or agency facilities’ to promote or oppose any ballot proposition,” according to her complaint.

PUD General Manager Joseph Wilson was unaware Tuesday the complaints had been filed but stated several people had contacted them about the flier and that the PUD attorney was already planning to contact the Public Disclosure Commission to let them know what happened.

“There was, I think, a misunderstanding of what’s allowed,” Wilson said. “There’s been other instances of the staff interacting with different agencies who request fliers be added to the PUD bills.”

Previous instances include Jefferson County requesting the PUD include information about recycling programs, Wilson said.

“An employee with the PUD received a request on this topic and didn’t discern that it was relevant to voting, which is different from other topics that have been included before,” Wilson said. “It was a mistake, and we’re going to have to do some process improvement to ensure it doesn’t repeat. We’ll use it as a learning opportunity.”

The PUD pays a company to perform its bill stuffing. As with other instances of additional information included with the bills, the PUD will pass on the cost of the levy fliers to the Jefferson County Parks Department.

“PUD funds were not used to cover the cost of this stuffing,” Wilson said. “PUD customers are not paying for the cost of the bill stuffing for the flier for the proposition.”

Jefferson County PUD strives to not be involved in politics, Wilson said.

“We understand that our customers receive our services and our mission is just to serve those as affordably and reliably as we can,” he said.

Guest Essay: Washington's Biggest Grid Problem Isn't Data Centers — It's Winter (Appeared in the Seattle Times, WA)

May 27, 2026

By Kurt Miller and Kelly Fukai 

Most of Washington's public energy debate centers on AI and data centers. The April 2026 E3 resource adequacy study — which the Seattle Times editorial board rightly called an alarm for every Washingtonian — should reframe that conversation. The most challenging problem facing the Pacific Northwest’s grid is not AI. It is winter. 

Winter cold demand is acutely peaked, weather-driven, geographically diffuse across millions of homes, and most severe precisely when wind and solar produce least. As Washington pushes heating from gas onto electric heat pumps, that demand shifts onto the system hardest to expand fast enough to absorb it. 

The Northwest Public Power Association represents over 150 community-owned utilities accountable to their customers for rates. The Northwest Gas Association represents the region's natural gas distribution and gas transmission companies. For most of the region's history, the two systems operated in parallel silos — electric utilities managed the grid, gas utilities managed the pipe — and when the region had abundant generation and comfortable margins, that separation worked fine. 

That era is over. 

Electrification is shifting heating load from gas onto the grid faster than transmission and generation can be built to absorb it. At the same time, gas-fired generation is what the grid leans on when wind and solar fall short — and a cold snap that strains gas delivery also strains the power plants that depend on it. The two fuels are now deeply interdependent. Our shared conclusion: reliability and affordability both depend on treating energy diversity as a strength, not a problem to engineer away. 

Today, the natural gas system absorbs much of the winter surge directly, heating millions of homes without placing equivalent pressure on the grid — a vast reliability asset that policy discussions consistently undercount. 

We saw what happens when redundancy disappears. Over Martin Luther King Jr. weekend in January 2024, a cold snap pushed the regional grid to its limit. The Northwest was importing nearly 5,000 megawatts from California and beyond. Wind generation collapsed across much of the region. An unexpected outage hit Jackson Prairie, the region's largest natural gas storage field, at the worst possible moment. 

The Western Power Pool called it a tipping point; the region narrowly avoided rolling blackouts. What the event made undeniable: operating without excess capacity and fuel diversity creates real risk. What rarely gets mentioned — on the coldest day of that snap, direct-use natural gas supplied more than 70 percent of the region's total energy needs, complementing the electric grid precisely when it was most strained. 

If heating demand shifts onto the electric grid at the pace state policy contemplates, the scale becomes enormous. E3 projects widespread building electrification could raise regional winter peak demand by nearly 30 gigawatts — equivalent to another Northwest hydropower system — while the region already faces a nine-gigawatt shortfall by 2030. The problem is sharpest during prolonged cold, when heat pump efficiency degrades and backup resistance heating kicks in, creating needle peaks at the worst moment for grid operators. 

The E3 analysis confirms what January 2024 demonstrated: meeting this challenge requires every tool working together. New natural gas peaking generation is part of the least-cost reliable pathway through the transition. Direct gas use in homes and businesses keeps winter load off the grid — a distributed reliability asset no wire or battery can easily replicate on the coldest days. Expanded renewables, new transmission, and clean firm capacity are essential too. A diversified system drawing on the complementary strengths of multiple fuels is the formula most likely to deliver reliability and affordability through the transition. 

What that means for Washington is concrete. State policy should permit new natural gas peaking capacity as a bridge until clean firm technologies are commercially mature. It should align the pace of building and transportation electrification mandates with the rate at which clean firm generation and transmission can be built. And it should treat direct natural gas heating in homes and businesses as a reliability resource that prevents those needle peaks from forming.  

None of this is an argument against decarbonization — significant progress is both achievable and necessary. It is an argument for how we get there without leaving families cold or bills unaffordable. The Pacific Northwest's energy strength has always come from diversity: hydro and thermal, wind and solar, supply and efficiency, pipe and wire working in concert. That same instinct — applied to a cleaner, electrified future — remains the surest path to a reliable, resilient, and affordable system. The answer is not all electric or all gas. It is a smarter, better-integrated combination of both. 

Kurt Miller is the CEO & Executive Director for the Northwest Public Power Association, representing more than 150 community-owned electric utilities across 10 Western states, including Washington. 

Oregon/Washington Litigation Represents a ‘Hidden Tax’ on Electricity, Increased Threat of Blackouts (Northwest Public Power Association)

NWPPA Calls for Course Correction, Transparency from Oregon and Washington

December 16, 2025

(VANCOUVER, WASH.) - -  The US Department of Justice filed its response last night to a motion for injunctive relief against Columbia River System Operations. The motion is led by the State of Oregon and supported by the State of Washington. In its filing, DOJ included cost estimates provided by the Bonneville Power Administration. BPA estimates Oregon’s motion would raise rates for the not-for-profit utilities it serves across Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, and Wyoming by an alarming 17%, with electricity customers bearing the costs.[i]

The measures in the motion for injunctive relief would deplete the region of much-needed reliable, affordable, carbon-free hydropower without providing any proven benefits for salmon. In last night’s filing, BPA also warned of the inevitability of frequent grid emergencies--meaning likely energy shortages and rotating blackouts--if the motion for injunctive relief is approved by the court.

“The litigation is like a hidden double-digit tax on electricity customers that threatens real harm to lower-income families, schools, farms, and businesses without providing any proven benefits to salmon,” said Kurt Miller, CEO & executive director of NWPPA. “BPA’s official analysis directly refutes plaintiff groups’ unsupported assertions that the lawsuit would have little impact on electricity rates or public safety."

“NWPPA and its partner organizations, including the Public Power Council, Northwest RiverPartners, Washington Association of Wheat Growers, and the Inland Ports and Navigation Group, previously warned that the latest round of litigation, initiated by Gov. Tina Kotek and supported by Gov. Bob Ferguson, threatens to hurt the very citizens who they were elected to represent,” Miller continued.

Several recent reports demonstrate the Pacific Northwest is at an abnormally high risk of blackouts.[ii],[iii] Meanwhile, residents across the Northwest report affordability as a top energy concern as residents continue to face price pressures across essential goods.[iv]

Miller noted that there is an opportunity to build upon Northwest examples where tribes, utilities, and agencies partner on solutions—such as the Upper Columbia United Tribes’ Phase 2 Implementation Plan (P2IP)[v]—that improve salmon outcomes without sacrificing clean, dispatchable hydropower.

“Northwesterners deserve solutions, not surprises,” Miller said. “We invite federal action agencies, tribal leaders, and state energy and environmental departments to the same table with public power utilities to craft a workable, science‑based package that protects salmon and keeps hydropower abundant, reliable, and affordable.”

NWPPA is not a party to the litigation, but appreciates the efforts of intervener defendants, such as the Public Power Council, Northwest Requirements Utilities, and the Inland Ports and Navigation Group, which are dedicating time and resources to defend the benefits of the federal hydropower system. Any questions pertaining to litigation efforts on behalf of public power and its navigation and agriculture partners should be directed to those entities. 

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About NWPPA

NWPPA is a not‑for‑profit regional association representing over 150 community‑owned electric utilities across 10 Western states and British Columbia. NWPPA also serves more than 400 associate members allied with the not‑for‑profit utility industry. For more information, visit www.nwppa.org or follow us on LinkedIn, Facebook, or Instagram.

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[i] Multiple factors impact customer rates. BPA expert testimony indicates the measures in the injunctive relief motion would add 17% rate pressure to Preference Customer rates (i.e., not-for-profit utilities who have long-term contracts with BPA). For not-for-profit utilities, 100% of the costs are borne by the customers.

[ii] Solutions to Improve Interregional Transmission Planning and Permitting

[iii] NERC 2025 Winter Reliability Assessment

[iv] Pacific Northwest residents worried about electricity costs more than climate change, according to recent polling – Northwest RiverPartners

[v] Phase 2 Implementation Plan (P2IP): Testing Feasibility of Reintroduced Salmon in the Upper Columbia River Basin - Upper Columbia United Tribes

 

Pacific Northwest Residents Worried About Electricity Costs More Than Climate Change, According to Recent Polling (Northwest RiverPartners)

New survey shows people concerned about rising energy costs and strongly support our region’s hydroelectric system

December 8, 2025

(VANCOUVER, WA) - - Pacific Northwest residents are feeling the pressure of rising energy costs, according to recent opinion polling commissioned by Northwest RiverPartners.

In a region with historically affordable energy, residents across Washington, Oregon, Montana, and Idaho expressed concerns about electricity costs. Nearly nine in 10 residents, or 88 percent of those surveyed, reported that the cost of electricity is a serious or somewhat serious problem.

Affordability has now overtaken climate change as the top energy concern for Pacific Northwest residents for the second year in a row, according to this survey, challenging a widely held assumption that climate change is the most pressing energy worry. Northwest RiverPartners has partnered with the independent research firm DHM to administer this statistically significant survey since 2007.

“Rising energy costs are impacting folks around the country, but especially here in the Pacific Northwest. We need energy stability to help reduce financial uncertainty for our residents, small business owners and farmers. As the cornerstone of our region’s energy system, hydropower continues to stand out as the leading source of affordable, clean and reliable energy,” says Clark Mather, executive director of Northwest RiverPartners.

To underscore the growing concern about energy costs, according to the U.S Energy Information Administration, between May 2024 and May 2025, the average energy price for retail electric customers in Washington state increased by 12.6 percent, compared to only a 6.5 percent increase nationally.

“When prices rise everywhere—from groceries to housing—energy bills don’t exist in a vacuum,” says LaTasha Wortham, Deputy Director of Customer Experience and External Affairs at Tacoma Public Utilities. “We are seeing a growing number of customers seeking assistance with their energy bills for the first time. These economic pressures are having real impacts on our customers and communities.”

Despite growing concerns about cost, hydropower maintains broad bipartisan support in the Pacific Northwest. 77 percent of residents surveyed stated they support the use of hydroelectric dams. Hydropower is viewed by residents as a renewable and affordable source of energy, and when asked about removing dams on the lower Snake River, fewer than one in four support it. Half of the residents cited rising electricity costs as one of their top concerns with dam removal.

“Right now, families are under intense pressure. We’re talking to parents, seniors and working people who are making impossible choices just to cover the basics like rent, food, childcare and keeping the lights on,” says Alan Walker, executive director of the Chelan Douglas Community Action Council. “When you’re worried about meeting your most fundamental needs, the day-to-day reality is focused on survival.”

To learn more about the residential polling on hydropower and the growing concern about energy costs, visit the Northwest RiverPartners website.

Guest Essay: BPA’s approach to salmon deserves credit, not criticism (Seattle Times, WA - Via The Energy News Feed)

Aug. 21, 2025 at 3:31 pm

The Bonneville Power Administration’s leadership and investment in salmon recovery have helped the Columbia Basin achieve important gains, despite significant environmental pressures, writes the author.

By Kurt Miller

Special to The Seattle Times

A recent Seattle Times op-ed (“BPA plan puts progress on clean energy and salmon recovery at risk,” Aug. 7) misrepresents the Bonneville Power Administration’s contribution to salmon recovery, suggesting that BPA’s proposal to move away from a decades-old goal of 5 million returning salmon signals a lack of commitment.

The opposite is true.

No other energy provider in the nation has invested more in restoring fish runs. Since the mid-1980s, BPA’s ratepayers have funded over $8 billion in habitat restoration, fish passage improvements, hatcheries and research — an unmatched commitment to the environment and the region’s communities. Much of this investment has gone directly to tribally led restoration and enhancement projects, providing long-term funding while creating stable jobs and economic opportunities in Northwest tribal communities.

Most recently, BPA committed $200 million over 20 years to help fund the study of the reintroduction of salmon above Chief Joseph and Grand Coulee dams. This important work, led by the Upper Columbia United Tribes, represents the type of partnership that the region should look toward — one that helps salmon without harming critical hydropower production.

When the Northwest Power and Conservation Council set its goal of 5 million returning adult salmon and steelhead in the late 1980s, it wasn’t based on rigorous ecosystem modeling, climate science or feasibility analysis. It was essentially an aspirational doubling of returns at the time; easy to remember, but never intended as a realistic, science-based benchmark.

In 2025, continuing to use that figure as the main yardstick ignores the realities fish face today: warming temperatures, changing ocean conditions, shrinking estuaries, and surging populations of marine predators, like seals and sea lions. The council’s recovery targets must be updated to reflect current conditions — not those of 40 years ago. BPA is right to push for metrics rooted in science and adapted to modern environmental challenges so that we can develop a realistic path forward.

Critics often downplay the fact that salmon returns in the Columbia Basin have tripled since the first federal dam was built, arguing it “doesn’t tell the whole story.” While no single statistic can paint an entire picture, the comparison speaks volumes: In other major West Coast rivers without large-scale hydropower — such as Alaska’s Yukon or British Columbia’s Fraser — salmon runs have plummeted over the past 50 years. Against that backdrop of decline, the Columbia Basin’s improved returns are not just a statistic, they’re a significant achievement born of decades of targeted investment and innovation. That’s not the record of an agency walking away from its responsibility — it’s the record of one carrying it out with persistence and scale.

Hydroelectric dams do more than provide revenue for salmon enhancement projects — they are a foundation of the Northwest’s energy security. They generate flexible, carbon-free electricity that keeps the lights on when wind and solar can’t. In terms of reliability, it takes roughly 5 megawatts of wind, solar and batteries to replace one megawatt of hydropower capacity, which means that existing hydropower projects are the most cost-effective sources of energy we have by far.

In Washington, where over one-third of residents rely on some form of government assistance to make ends meet, losing hydropower capacity would mean steeper electric bills and greater blackout risks. As U.S. Sen. Patty Murray concluded in 2022, the region’s dams are irreplaceable, given current technologies, for keeping energy reliable, clean and affordable.

The Northwest Power Act rightly directs BPA to protect fish while maintaining an adequate, efficient, economical and reliable power supply. Achieving that balance requires recovery goals grounded in science, responsive to changing conditions, and focused on strategies with the highest biological payoff.

BPA’s leadership and investment in salmon recovery have helped the Columbia Basin achieve important gains, despite significant environmental pressures. With realistic, science-based goals, the region can build on this progress while continuing to address the work that remains.

Kurt Miller: is the CEO & Executive Director of the Northwest Public Power Association, representing over 150 not-for-profit electric utilities across 10 Western states and British Columbia.

U.S. DOE Secretary Expresses Support for the Lower Snake River Dams (Northwest Public Power Association)

(WASHINGTPN, DC) - - In response to a question from Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-Wash.) at a May 7 budget hearing, Department of Energy Secretary Chris Wright said he is “passionately in support” of keeping the lower Snake River dams in place.

“They’ve been tremendous assets for decades,” Wright said of the dams. “We should not spend money to go backwards to reduce our energy generating capacity.”

Wright said hydropower facilities will become more important resources as demand for electricity in the United States rises.

“When America was bold, we built a number of great dams,” Wright said. “They’ve been critical to the economic prosperity of our country, very early suppliers of firm, reliable power … they provide what I call high-value electricity, which means it’s there when you need it and you can hold it back when you don’t need it. They’re very valuable assets.”

NWPPA has long supported keeping the lower Snake River dams, which are a critical power resource in the Northwest.

“Public power utilities across the region deeply appreciate Secretary Wright’s strong endorsement of the lower Snake River dams,” said NWPPA CEO and Executive Director Kurt Miller. “His remarks affirm the essential role these projects play in keeping electricity reliable and affordable for the communities we serve. As demand for clean, firm power continues to grow, the lower Snake River dams remain a cornerstone of our region’s energy infrastructure and a vital asset for not-for-profit, community-owned utilities.”