2018 President’s Day Weekend – a Smorgasbord of Weather

Wind sprites will kick up their heels a bit this afternoon, with wind gusts possible up to 20 MPH.

Things will calm down tonight, but Saturday will be exciting.

A Wind Advisory has been posted for Mason County for 7 AM through 7 PM tomorrow.

Winds will be from the South to Southwest, between 20 and 30 MPH, with occasional gusts to 45 MPH. The University of Washington model shows winds increasing by 9 AM, and sticking around until about 6 PM.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through 3 AM Saturday for Hood Canal and Puget Sound. Wind gusts on the water and nearby shorelines are forecast at between 17 and 29 MPH.

As the winds ease on Saturday, a big bunch of cold air will cross the Canadian border and make things VERY cold. Snow is forecast for up to an inch in the lowlands. Around Lake Cushman, the forecast from Saturday night through Sunday is for snow accumulations of three inches or more.

How cold will it be?

• By Sunday night, overnight low temperatures will be dropping to near 20 degrees.
• Monday’s overnight low will be in the upper-teens.
• Tuesday’s overnight low will be in the low 20’s.

The cooling trend is related to a breakout of cold weather from British Columbia’s Fraser River Valley, called the “Fraser Outflow.” Here’s a good example. Look at all the blue over Washington State. That means COLD. Thanks Canada.

There’s a Winter Storm Watch for the Olympic Mountains, for elevations above 2,000 feet. Snow, wind, blowing snow. Not good backcountry weather.

The passes through the Cascade Mountains will be an “interesting trip.” Blustery winds, and snowfall measured in FEET is the forecast through late Sunday. The snow and wind will increase avalanche danger in the passes.

In a Nutshell:

• Weekend wind, rain, and snow.
• Wind Saturday, between 20 and 30 MPH, with occasional gusts to 45 MPH.
• Up to an inch of rain Friday through Sunday morning.
• Sunday: up to an inch of snow in the lowlands of Mason County; three inches or more in areas like Lake Cushman.
• The coldest weather of winter so far: Sunday and Monday overnight lows in the teens and low 20’s.
• All cross-Cascade passes will be affected by winter travel conditions: wind and heavy snow.

2018 - President's Day Weekend Weather – The Rutherford B. Hayes Edition

Since President’s Day is February 19, 2018, I’m dedicating this weather update to the 19th President of the United States: Rutherford B. Hayes.

Winds will pick up on Friday. But Mother Nature is saving her biggest show for Saturday.

It will be rainy Friday, with wind gusts to around 20 MPH.

Saturday will have winds in the 20 MPH range, rising to as high as 40 MPH in the afternoon and evening. It will remain a bit gusty overnight, before settling down Sunday morning.

Then, it will get cold. Snow is in the Sunday forecast, with accumulations in the lowlands of about a half an inch. Around Lake Cushman, the forecast is for an inch or more.

How cold:

• By Sunday night, overnight low temperatures will be dropping into the upper teens.
• Monday’s overnight low will be in the mid-teens.
• Tuesday’s overnight low will be in the low 20’s.

It’s not confirmed, but there may be some strong winds with the cold temperatures. The cooling and winds are related to a breakout of cold weather from British Columbia’s Fraser River Valley, called the “Fraser Outflow.”

A Winter Storm Watch for the higher elevations of the Olympic Mountains is in effect from Friday night Through Late Saturday.

Here are the bullet points:

• Weather system is on the way, with weekend rain, wind, and snow.
• Up to an inch of rain Friday through Sunday morning.
• Winds Friday, up to 20 MPH.
• Wind Saturday, starting with gusts between 17 to 22 MPH, increasing to 23 to 28 MPH in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as near 40 MPH.
• Sunday: half an inch of snow in the lowlands of Mason County; an inch or more in the higher elevations.
• The coldest weather of winter so far: Sunday and Monday overnight lows in the teens.
• All cross-Cascade passes will be affected by winter travel conditions: wind and heavy snow.

2018 - President's Day Weekend Weather - Bad Weather, Bad dog!

Reader’s Digest Edition:

Weather system packing rain, wind, and possible snow is on the way:

• Winds Friday through Saturday, ranging from 15 to 30 MPH.
• Up to an inch of rain Friday through Sunday morning.
• Possible lowland snow late Saturday, early Sunday.
• The coldest weather of winter so far: Sunday and Monday overnight lows in the teens.
• More details on timing and intensity as the storm moves closer to the Pacific Northwest.

The Unabridged Version:

A weather system is expected to move through Western Washington State Friday through Saturday. Windy conditions and rain will be the primary features of this storm for flatlanders. Late Saturday, cold air will creep its way south, increasing the chance for lowland snow. By Sunday night, overnight low temperatures will be dropping into the upper teens. By Monday things should dry out. But temperatures will remain cold; the coldest so far this winter. Monday’s overnight low will be in the mid-teens. Tuesday’s overnight low will be in the low 20’s.

For mountain folk, heavy snow will fall in the Olympic and Cascade Mountains Friday through Sunday. Forecasters are not talking inches here; they’re talking feet. This pattern may continue through Sunday night. Don’t have a snow level report yet. However, there is a pretty good chance that travel over the Cascade passes will be affected.

Wind Impacts?

OK, so the National Weather Service has described the winds in their forecasts several ways: blustery, and windy. Since these are “technical definitions,” I’ll use the lowest to highest range in each. At the low end, “blustery” (a cold weather term) is defined as between 15 and 25 MPH. At the high end, “windy” is defined as between 20 and 30 MPH.

The official forecast for the next several days predicts winds as high as 25 MPH Friday night, and 21 MPH Saturday.

Here is that said forecast:

Friday

Rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 49. Southwest wind 11 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Friday Night

Rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 41. Southwest wind 7 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Saturday

Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 48. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Saturday Night

A 50 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. Breezy.

Sunday

A chance of snow showers before 4pm, then a slight chance of rain and snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 41.

Sunday Night

A slight chance of rain and snow showers before 10pm, then a chance of snow showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 17.

Public Power Council Comments on Administration Budget Proposals on Bonneville Power Administration (Public Power Council, Portland, OR)

(PORTLAND, OR) – The Public Power Council stated its opposition to proposals in the Administration’s Budget released today that would divest the electricity transmission system of the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA), and would also have BPA change the way it sets its power rates.  BPA is a power marketing administration (PMA) created to sell and deliver electricity from the federal Columbia River power system “at cost” to citizens of the Northwest.  It operates 15,000 miles of transmission lines, and collects all of the costs of the transmission and power it provides in rates BPA charges its customers.

“We are looking to the future, and are already working with BPA to modernize its transmission system and to take concerted action to address its cost of power,” said PPC Executive Director, Scott Corwin.  “The bottom line is this budget proposes to raise an extra $5 billion to $7 billion on the backs of Northwest electricity customers over the next ten years without any added benefit.”

The transmission asset proposal would help fund the federal government by selling off a critical system that electricity consumers in the West have paid to construct and maintain.  And, the proposal to have the PMAs charge market rates raises several implementation problems, including a conflict with BPA’s statutes and with its current power contracts with utilities that continue through 2028.

PPC staff will be analyzing specifics of the proposals if and when they become available.  Reading from the Budget Summary, the proposals raise several concerns including: (1) significant increased costs to local residents and businesses; (2) loss of regional control and value; (3) potential for remote areas of the system to be neglected, harming rural communities; and, (4) impacts to reliability of what is currently a complex and integrated system.

Pend Oreille PUD & Ponderay Newsprint Company Agree to End All Litigation (Pend Oreille PUD, Newport, WA)

(NEWPORT, WA) – Pend Oreille County Public Utility District and Ponderay Newsprint Company have agreed to end all litigation between them.

The resolution of these matters allows PNC to continue its focus on producing high quality newsprint and providing jobs to approximately 140 employees in the region. The PUD can likewise focus on its hydroelectric dam improvement project and serving its customers.

The agreement also promotes future collaboration between PNC and the PUD by providing PNC with long-term energy cost incentives and the PUD with support for marketing its power resources to additional consumers.

“We are happy to have resolved the ligation on mutually agreeable terms and look forward to a stronger working relationship with the District,” said Myron Johnson, PNC’s general manager.

The PUD’s general manager, Colin Willenbrock, is also pleased that the litigation has concluded. “This conclusion helps keep the PUD’s largest customer operating in the County and allows the PUD to make decisions that will ensure the rest of the general service customers continue to receive power at the lowest possible cost.”

“I’m very pleased with the outcome,” said Dan Peterson, the PUD’s Board President. “This is a reasonable win-win for everyone.”

Lane Electric: Dave D'Avanzo, Manager, Member Services Retires (Lane Electric, Eugene, OR)

(From Lane Electric's Facebook Page, January 31, 2018) "Elvis" has left the Building!!! - After Serving Lane Electric Customers for over 15 Years we said "So-Long" and "Happy Retirement" to Dave D'Avanzo - Manager, Member Services today. He will be missed by everyone! Enjoy your next chapter Dave!

All the Money in the Law – Will Tax Savings go to Energy Infrastructure (Politico’s Morning Energy)

(WASHINGTON, DC) – One little-noticed byproduct of Congress’ recent tax reform package is about to free up tens of billions of dollars for electric and gas utilities - and could play a vital role in the anticipated build-out of energy infrastructure. Pro’s Darius Dixon reports that thanks to the bill’s massive reduction in corporate tax rates, the “deferred” money utilities have collected from customers for years - set aside to pay future years’ taxes for projects like transmission lines and power plants - will now be open for other investments, such as modernizing and strengthening pipelines and the electric grid.

“The windfall is expected to set off a debate in dozens of states about how to spend the money - and whether some of it should go to reducing customers’ rates. It’s also stirring interest among environmental groups, which could push to use a chunk of the cash to build wind or solar projects or retrain displaced coal workers,” Darius writes. David Springe, executive director of the National Association of State Utility Consumer Advocates, tells Darius: “This is where all the money is. That is why the utilities really care.”

The deferred money in question is separate ”from the immediate boost to earnings that utilities will see from the cut in their corporate income taxes,” Darius reports. For instance, New Jersey-based PSEG estimates it will have at least $1.8 billion in its deferred tax pool to spend on rate cuts or infrastructure upgrades, and bigger utilities have amassed even larger sums. American Electric Power’s regulatory filings list $4.4 billion , while NextEra Energy’s sits at $4.5 billion. The Edison Electric Institute estimates that deferred tax balances across the power industry alone total around $165 billion, although it is not yet known how much of that is “excess” under the new tax rate. Others figures will likely start rolling out over the next several weeks as SEC filings are reported. Read the story here.