Rural Residents Lacking Broadband Test Biden Plan for Expanded Service (Spokesman-Review, Spokane, WA)

Federal maps show R. Clay Jackson’s beef cattle farm in rural Madison County, Virginia, is awash in broadband – a designation that likely rules it out of President Joe Biden’s push to connect all Americans to fast internet service.

But “the assessment is incorrect,” Jackson, owner of Senterfitt Farms and chairman of the Madison County Board of Supervisors, said in an interview. Local broadband is, in fact, sparse. “It puts us at a massive disadvantage as it pertains to applying.”

The Biden administration’s $2 trillion infrastructure plan includes $100 billion to extend broadband networks to all U.S. households.

But officials relying on industry data produced inaccurate maps of internet deployment. As a result, the U.S. doesn’t know where to find everyone lacking service.

“What we do next has to be done right, otherwise we could be in a situation where those who are currently lacking service could, after more spending, continue to lack service,” Sen. Maria Cantwell, D-Wash., chair of the Commerce Committee, said at a March 17 hearing. “We can’t afford to invest this money, and then still have communities without access.”

The Federal Communications Commission has long overstated how many people have broadband, creating a disconnect between data and reality.

Now it’s a stumbling block for Biden’s effort to connect broadband have-nots – a cohort the White House puts at 30 million people, and others tally at 42 million or more.

“The biggest problem is false positives – places shown as having broadband when they don’t,” Michael Romano, senior vice president at NTCA – The Rural Broadband Association, said in an interview. “That frustrates financing and subsidies to places in need” because subsidy programs rule out places listed as already having service.

Private investment has helped launch U.S. cities and wealthy suburbs into a Netflix-binging, telecommuting lifestyle.

Many rural areas with fewer potential customers have been left behind with poor connections, a shortcoming sharply felt as schools turned to online learning because of the coronavirus pandemic.

The problem spans rich farmland, remote mountainous tracts and isolated tribal lands – and perhaps most galling, areas just beyond suburbs that are but a short drive from modern networks.

Yet without accurate data and clear maps, officials are hard-pressed to discern precisely which areas are languishing.

“The best time to update our broadband maps would have been years ago. But the second-best time is right now,” FCC acting Chairwoman Jessica Rosenworcel said in an email. “It’s hard to manage a problem we can’t accurately measure.”

Rosenworcel, a Democrat selected by Biden in January, said the FCC would update maps “in an iterative way” to better target funding.

The FCC’s known that its maps were faulty for at least five years. Now, spurred by impatient lawmakers in Congress, it says it’s working at speed to develop a new, definitive catalogue of broadband service.

An internal task force is gathering precise data from providers, and the agency has asked for consumers to send emails describing their access to broadband.

Still, the effort may not produce maps until early 2022, according to testimony at the FCC’s February meeting.

Misleading maps and difficulties coordinating among subsidy programs have raised concerns among lawmakers.

They began considering broadband funding even before Biden’s announcement Wednesday of the broader infrastructure plan.

Some see another problem: Without sufficient data, federal funds may end up building networks in places that already have broadband suppliers.

Mississippi Sen. Roger Wicker, the top Republican on the Commerce panel, said updated maps are needed before more federal money is spent.

“The president’s broadband proposal opens the door for duplication and overbuilding,” he said in an email.

Cable providers worry public money will fund competitors.

“Too often Congress fails to erect guardrails to ensure public money is spent on communities that lack broadband,” Michael Powell, president of the Internet & Television Association, said in a blog post.

“The result is all too predictable; money finds its way to more lucrative, already served markets, shortchanging unserved areas.”

The FCC has relied on industry-reported data for its maps. Companies that provide fixed broadband service – service delivered to a residence over a line, rather than wirelessly – report which of the 11 million census blocks they serve.

If even one house is served, the entire block is considered to have broadband. Areas are considered served if companies say they could provide service within seven to 10 days.

“This analysis likely overstates the coverage experienced by some consumers,” the FCC said in releasing its most recent annual report assessing the extent of broadband deployment.

The FCC “has grossly overestimated the number of connected Americans because of faulty data gathering,” Christopher Ali, an associate professor in media studies at the University of Virginia, told lawmakers.

“We don’t know the exact number of un- and underconnected rural Americans.”

Only 63% of rural Americans report having a broadband connection, according to a 2019 study by the Pew Research Center, Ali said.

Their plight is a backhanded testament to more than a decade of U.S. federal intervention. From 2009 to 2017, the U.S. spent more than $47 billion on broadband subsidies, according to the Government Accountability Office.

Subsidy programs have continued apace since then. In addition, Congress in COVID relief measures and other bills has directed more than $22 billion to broadband consumer subsidies and infrastructure, according to a summary prepared by New Street Research.

The FCC in 2017 calculated it would cost $80 billion to connect all U.S. households with fast fiber connections. The amount needed now is probably more, Ali said.

The spending boost proposed by Biden “will do some incredible good if it’s spent wisely,” Ali said. “It may indeed be what we need to ensure everyone in the country has access to ‘future proof’ broadband networks.”

In rural Madison County, about 90 miles southwest of Washington, D.C., most of the 13,000 residents make do with spotty cell service or balky satellite-delivered internet, said Jackson, the farmer and county official.

Apart from about 200 people who live close to the main north-south highway, internet connectivity “is exceedingly poor with very, very limited options,” Jackson said. “We’re just left out here trying to figure out what to do.”

 

The Energy News Digest for March 31, 2021

The Energy News Digest is sponsored by the Northwest Public Power Association.

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HOT SHOTS – TODAY’S TOP FIVE STORIES

WA State: Horse Heaven Wind Farm’s Virtual Meeting Draws Hundreds (KVEW/KAPP-TV, Tri-Cities/Yakima, WA)

https://www.yaktrinews.com/minds-behind-horse-heaven-wind-farm-rescind-expedited-process-request-will-hold-public-hearing/

Pacific Gas & Electric Plan to Reserve Temporary Generators for Wildfire Season Has Groups Worried About Diesel Use (Utility Dive)

https://www.utilitydive.com/news/pge-plan-to-reserve-temporary-generators-for-wildfire-season-has-groups-wo/597603/

Montana: Lewis & Clark Coal-Fired Power Plant Closing March 31 (Montana Free Press)

https://montanafreepress.org/2021/03/29/lewis-clark-power-plant-closing-march-31/

President Biden Floats Plan to Bring Broadband to All Americans (Gizmodo)

https://gizmodo.com/biden-floats-plan-to-bring-broadband-to-all-americans-1846589551

California: Decision on Controversial Wind-Energy Project in Shasta County Could Come Soon (Redding Record Searchlight, CA)

https://www.redding.com/story/news/local/2021/03/29/controversial-fountain-wind-project-decision-shasta-county/7046164002/

NEWS HIGHLIGHTS (See Stories Below)

1.      Pacific Gas & Electric Plan to Reserve Temporary Generators for Wildfire Season Has Groups Worried About Diesel Use

2.      Montana: Lewis & Clark Coal-Fired Power Plant Closing March 31

3.      Wyoming Lawmakers Move Ahead with Proposed Coal Lawsuit Fund

4.      Snake River Dams - Significant Hydro-Related Federal Legislation Pending

5.      Groups’ Reps Pen a Letter Against Breaching Federal Snake River Dams

6.      Utah Approves $500,000 for Navajo Community Electricity Project

7.      Millions at Risk as States Begin to Lift Power Shut-Off Bans

8.      Lawsuit Challenges Gloria’s ‘Invitation to Bid’ On San Diego Electric & Gas Franchise Agreements

9.      Op/Ed: Gary Ivory – Douglas County PUD Plan Will Serve Our Community for Generations to Come

10.   Women in Public Power Offer Insights on Pathways to Leadership Positions

11.   Preparing for a Resilient Columbia River Hydropower System

12.   WA State: Horse Heaven Wind Farm’s Virtual Meeting Draws Hundreds

13.   California: Decision on Controversial Wind-Energy Project in Shasta County Could Come Soon

14.   GOP Lawmakers Take Aim at Arizona Renewable Energy Standards

15.   Interest in Hydrogen Fuel Growing in the Pacific Northwest -- And Tax Dollars Following

16.   Portland, Maine Company Builds Second Underwater Power Generator at Brunswick Landing for Alaskan Village

17.   Op/Ed: Joy Ditto - Incentivize Public Power’s Clean Energy Future

18.   Biomass: The ‘Green Energy’ That Might Be Ruining the Planet

19.   Puget Sound Energy Begins Smart Street Light Installations to Help Customers Save Energy, Reduce Carbon

20.   Op/Ed: All-Electric Homes Too Pricey for Low-Income Buyers

21.   Op/Ed: Studies Shed Light on Why Dams Matter to Salmon & Orcas

22.   Op/Ed: The Struggle to Share a Shrinking Resource — Northwest Salmon

23.   Editorial: Washington State’s Culvert Challenge Deserves Federal Funding

24.   Young Steelhead Begin Journey to Pacific as Part of Idaho Power’s Annual Fish-Hauling Operation

25.   U.S. Officials OK Plan to Send Radioactive Waste to Idaho

26.   Hazardous Waste Landfill in Oregon Plans Expansion

27.   Oregon: The Battle to Protect One of America’s Last Wild Landscapes

28.   Washington State Senator’s Cap-&-Trade Claim Mystifies Farm Groups

29.   What Idaho Researchers Are Learning About Climate Change from a Glacier

30.   President Biden Floats Plan to Bring Broadband to All Americans

31.   Oregon: Blue River Will Get Better Broadband, Thanks to Grant

32.   AT&T Says 10 Mbps Upload Speed is Enough for Nationwide Broadband: Lawyer Accuses Company of Overcharging

33.   T-Mobile Takes a Stab at 5G Home Broadband

34.   Volkswagen Admits Marketing Prank, Pulls Fake Release on Name Change

35.   Op/Ed: Mass Media Is Having a Very Bad Moment

36.   The Dalles Lock Set to Reopen After Emergency Repairs

37.   President Biden Calls for Massive Climate & Transit Package

WORD OF THE DAY

Foist /FOYST/ Verb - 1a: to introduce or insert surreptitiously or without warrant b: to force another to accept especially by stealth or deceit 2: to pass off as genuine or worthy.

Haha, just fooling.

Volkswagen foists false story.

And, gets burned by it.

ENERGY & UTILITY ISSUES

1.      Pacific Gas & Electric Plan to Reserve Temporary Generators for Wildfire Season Has Groups Worried About Diesel Use (Utility Dive)

https://www.utilitydive.com/news/pge-plan-to-reserve-temporary-generators-for-wildfire-season-has-groups-wo/597603/

2.      Montana: Lewis & Clark Coal-Fired Power Plant Closing March 31 (Montana Free Press)

https://montanafreepress.org/2021/03/29/lewis-clark-power-plant-closing-march-31/

3.      Wyoming Lawmakers Move Ahead with Proposed Coal Lawsuit Fund (Associated Press)

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/wyoming/articles/2021-03-30/wyoming-lawmakers-move-ahead-with-proposed-coal-lawsuit-fund

4.      Snake River Dams - Significant Hydro-Related Federal Legislation Pending (Lexology)

https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=acb2fedd-5a40-46bb-b666-f1b1dfb86d93

5.      Groups’ Reps Pen a Letter Against Breaching Federal Snake River Dams (Lewiston Tribune, ID)

https://lmtribune.com/northwest/groups-reps-pen-a-letter-against-breaching/article_f2214160-6f28-59a2-b3f1-8e5f4537498a.html

6.      Utah Approves $500,000 for Navajo Community Electricity Project (KSL-TV, Salt Lake City, UT)

https://ksltv.com/458642/utah-approves-500k-for-navajo-community-electricity-project/

7.      Millions at Risk as States Begin to Lift Power Shut-Off Bans (National Public Radio)

https://www.npr.org/2021/03/27/981875140/millions-at-risk-as-states-begin-to-lift-power-shut-off-bans

8.      Lawsuit Challenges Gloria’s ‘Invitation to Bid’ On San Diego Electric & Gas Franchise Agreements (San Diego Union-Tribune, CA)

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/business/story/2021-03-29/lawsuit-itb

9.      Op/Ed: Gary Ivory – Douglas County PUD Plan Will Serve Our Community for Generations to Come (Wenatchee World, WA – Paywall Advisory)

https://www.wenatcheeworld.com/opinion/opinion-gary-ivory-douglas-county-pud-plan-will-serve-our-community-for-generations-to-come/article_705a2b16-90f8-11eb-bbd9-b327dadbb974.html

10.   Women in Public Power Offer Insights on Pathways to Leadership Positions (American Public Power Association)

https://www.publicpower.org/periodical/article/women-public-power-offer-insights-pathways-leadership-positions

11.   Preparing for a Resilient Columbia River Hydropower System (Bonneville Power Administration – PDF)

https://www.bpa.gov/news/pubs/FactSheets/fs-202102-Preparing-for-a-resilient-Columbia-River-hydropower-system.pdf

RENEWABLE ENERGY & SELF STORAGE

12.   WA State: Horse Heaven Wind Farm’s Virtual Meeting Draws Hundreds (KVEW/KAPP-TV, Tri-Cities/Yakima, WA)

https://www.yaktrinews.com/minds-behind-horse-heaven-wind-farm-rescind-expedited-process-request-will-hold-public-hearing/

13.   California: Decision on Controversial Wind-Energy Project in Shasta County Could Come Soon (Redding Record Searchlight, CA)

https://www.redding.com/story/news/local/2021/03/29/controversial-fountain-wind-project-decision-shasta-county/7046164002/

14.   GOP Lawmakers Take Aim at Arizona Renewable Energy Standards (Associated Press)

https://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2021-03-30/gop-lawmakers-take-aim-at-arizona-renewable-energy-standards

15.   Interest in Hydrogen Fuel Growing in the Pacific Northwest -- And Tax Dollars Following (Northwest Public Broadcasting)

https://www.nwnewsnetwork.org/post/interest-hydrogen-fuel-growing-pacific-northwest-and-tax-dollars-following

16.   Portland, Maine Company Builds Second Underwater Power Generator at Brunswick Landing for Alaskan Village (Portland Press-Herald, ME)

https://www.pressherald.com/2021/03/29/portland-company-builds-second-underwater-power-generator-at-brunswick-landing-for-alaskan-village/

17.   Op/Ed: Joy Ditto - Incentivize Public Power’s Clean Energy Future (The Hill, Washington, DC)

https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/545686-incentivize-public-powers-clean-energy-future?rl=1

18.   Biomass: The ‘Green Energy’ That Might Be Ruining the Planet (Politico)

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/03/26/biomass-carbon-climate-politics-477620

CONSERVATION & EFFICIENCY

19.   Puget Sound Energy Begins Smart Street Light Installations to Help Customers Save Energy, Reduce Carbon (Whatcom Talk, Bellingham, WA)

https://www.whatcomtalk.com/2021/03/31/pse-begins-smart-street-light-installations-to-help-customers-save-energy-reduce-carbon/

20.   Op/Ed: All-Electric Homes Too Pricey for Low-Income Buyers (Colorado Politics)

https://www.coloradopolitics.com/opinion/all-electric-homes-too-pricey-for-low-income-buyers/article_29c63b58-8d34-11eb-8e53-3becc7859c4c.html

FISH & WILDLIFE

21.   Op/Ed: Studies Shed Light on Why Dams Matter to Salmon & Orcas (Kitsap Sun, Bremerton, WA – Paywall Advisory)

https://www.kitsapsun.com/story/opinion/columnists/2021/03/30/your-turn-what-dams-mean-salmon-orcas/4810417001/

22.   Op/Ed: The Struggle to Share a Shrinking Resource — Northwest Salmon (Seattle Times, WA – Paywall Advisory)

https://www.seattletimes.com/opinion/the-struggle-to-share-a-shrinking-resource-northwest-salmon/

23.   Editorial: Washington State’s Culvert Challenge Deserves Federal Funding (Seattle Times, WA – Paywall Advisory)

https://www.seattletimes.com/opinion/editorials/washingtons-culvert-challenge-deserves-federal-funding/

24.   Young Steelhead Begin Journey to Pacific as Part of Idaho Power’s Annual Fish-Hauling Operation (Big Country News, Clarkston, WA)

https://www.bigcountrynewsconnection.com/idaho/young-steelhead-begin-journey-to-pacific-as-part-of-idaho-powers-annual-fish-hauling-operation/article_1bc6a398-919a-11eb-abbf-8b9796e56ce7.html

ENVIRONMENTAL AFFLATUS – CLEAN UP ON AISLE THREE

25.   U.S. Officials OK Plan to Send Radioactive Waste to Idaho (KTVB-TV, Boise, ID)

https://www.ktvb.com/article/news/national/us-officials-ok-plan-to-send-radioactive-waste-to-idaho/277-b1c7f9d7-007a-433a-8d25-fe70429b81ec

26.   Hazardous Waste Landfill in Oregon Plans Expansion (Associated Press)

https://apnews.com/article/chemical-waste-waste-management-hazardous-waste-oregon-8aef2824fa4504b887550043c49d74e4

27.   Oregon: The Battle to Protect One of America’s Last Wild Landscapes (Huffington Post)

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/owyhee-canyonlands-sagebrush-climate-change_n_605de458c5b66d30c743e3e5

CLIMATE CHANGE SEQUESTRATION VAULT

28.   Washington State Senator’s Cap-&-Trade Claim Mystifies Farm Groups (Capital Press)

https://www.capitalpress.com/state/washington/washington-senators-cap-and-trade-claim-mystifies-farm-groups/article_b40db8d4-90b5-11eb-ab02-e37ab2bc67ad.html

29.   What Idaho Researchers Are Learning About Climate Change from a Glacier (Boise Public Radio, ID)

https://www.boisestatepublicradio.org/post/what-idaho-researchers-are-learning-about-climate-change-glacier#stream/0

TELECOMMUNICATIONS

30.   President Biden Floats Plan to Bring Broadband to All Americans (Gizmodo)

https://gizmodo.com/biden-floats-plan-to-bring-broadband-to-all-americans-1846589551

31.   Oregon: Blue River Will Get Better Broadband, Thanks to Grant (KLCC Radio, Eugene, OR)

https://www.klcc.org/post/blue-river-will-get-better-broadband-thanks-grant

32.   AT&T Says 10 Mbps Upload Speed is Enough for Nationwide Broadband: Lawyer Accuses Company of Overcharging (TechTimes)

https://www.techtimes.com/articles/258592/20210331/at-t-internet-deals-10-mbps-upload-speed-enough-nationwide-broadband-lawyer-overcharging.htm

33.   T-Mobile Takes a Stab at 5G Home Broadband (Bloomberg News)

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-31/t-mobile-takes-a-stab-at-5g-home-broadband-where-others-failed

PUBLIC RELATIONS, MARKETING & MEDIA

34.   Volkswagen Admits Marketing Prank, Pulls Fake Release on Name Change (Reuters)

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-volkswagen-usa-name/volkswagen-admits-marketing-prank-pulls-fake-release-on-name-change-idUSKBN2BM1O3

35.   Op/Ed: Mass Media Is Having a Very Bad Moment (Seattle Times, WA – Paywall Advisory)

https://www.seattletimes.com/opinion/mass-media-is-having-a-very-bad-moment/

BUSINESS, GOVERNANCE, & MANAGEMENT

36.   The Dalles Lock Set to Reopen After Emergency Repairs (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers)

https://www.nwp.usace.army.mil/Media/News-Releases/Article/2553911/the-dalles-lock-set-to-open-after-emergency-repairs/

37.   President Biden Calls for Massive Climate & Transit Package (Axios)

https://www.axios.com/biden-climate-transit-package-d9c8ffad-4486-4e61-a7bb-3d421fa0546d.html

ALLIGATORS IN THE SEWER – DIVERSIONS

Doc Severinsen, Oregon Native & Longtime ‘Tonight Show’ Bandleader, Is Profiled in a PBS Special

https://www.oregonlive.com/entertainment/2021/03/doc-severinsen-oregon-native-and-longtime-tonight-show-bandleader-is-profiled-in-a-pbs-special.html

Stranger Lived Undetected in Couple’s Basement, Stealing Their Food, Washington Cops Say

https://www.thenewstribune.com/news/state/washington/article250325746.html?ac_cid=DM417821&ac_bid=-80541498

NCAA Kicks Beavers Out of Hotel in the Middle of the Night After Elite 8 Loss

https://www.nbcsports.com/northwest/oregon-state-beavers/ncaa-kicks-oregon-state-beavers-out-hotel-middle-night-after-elite-8

Hickory the Mule Is Back Home After Leading Hikers to Injured Owner, Then Disappearing into Forest

https://www.oregonlive.com/clackamascounty/2021/03/hickory-the-mule-is-back-home-after-leading-hikers-to-injured-owner-then-disappearing-into-forest.html

SONG OF THE DAY

Doc Severinsen – McArthur Park

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YF8scBG0iJs

LINKS & PAYWALL ADVISORY

Links in The Energy News Digest lead to current stories. Media organizations update their websites regularly, which may result in broken links. Media attribution includes information about possible paywall restrictions.

Montana's Largest Wind Farm Will Be Built Near Colstrip Beginning in 2021 (Billings Gazette, MT)

(COLSTRIP, MT) - - Construction of what’s expected to be Montana’s largest wind farm will begin in 2021 just beyond the shadow the coal-fired Colstrip Power Plant.

NextEra Energy Resources will plug into the grid at Colstrip substation, to target markets in the Pacific Northwest. Its Clearwater Wind project, with a 750-megawatts capacity, will be three times larger than any wind farm currently spinning in Montana.

“We expect to start construction on Clearwater in 2021 with the wind farm becoming operational in 2022,” said NextEra’s Lisa Paul in an email.

Developers spent much of the past two years securing transmission access and tax abatements in the three counties that Clearwater will span. NextEra reached right-of-way terms with the community of Colstrip last summer, clearing the way for the wind farm to connect to the high end of the Colstrip substation.

There were community concerns in the power plant town that Clearwater firing up would signal Colstrip Unit 3 powering down for good, the issue being whether there was enough transmission to accommodate Colstrip’s surviving two units and Clearwater. In the end, county officials and state legislators spoke about the importance of the wind farm to the local tax base.

“The project does not need additional transmission capacity to become available on the Colstrip Transmission System for Clearwater to come online,” Paul said.

There are currently 614 megawatts of transmission capacity available on the Colstrip line that was previously used to accommodate Colstrip Units 1 and 2. Those units were closed at the start of 2020, six months after owners Talen Energy and Puget Sound Energy announced the coal-fired generators were no longer economical.

NextEra expects Clearwater construction to create 350 construction jobs. Afterward, a full-time crew of 20 people will run the wind farm. Taxes on the wind farm over 30 years are estimated to be $217 million. Payments to landowners over that time are estimated to be $226 million.

Clearwater is one of three large renewable energy projects being rolled out as demand for renewables in the region increases. The other projects are PacifiCorp’s 250-megawatt Pryor Mountain Wind Farm near Bridger and Broad Reach Power’s 500-megawatt wind and solar project near Broadview. Four of the Colstrip Power Plant’s six owners face coal power bans as Washington and Oregon, responding to climate change, roll out plans to lower greenhouse gases.

The owners, Puget Sound, Avista and PacifiCorp face a ban on coal power in Washington state at the end of 2025. However, all three see a place for Montana renewable energy in their supply portfolios. They also face a use-it or lose-it deadline on their stake in the Colstrip transmission line, meaning they will not be able to continue billing customers for the line if they don’t find green replacement power for Colstrip.

A Monster Wind Turbine Is Upending an Industry (The Business Journals)

Twirling above a strip of land at the mouth of Rotterdam’s harbor is a wind turbine so large it is difficult to photograph. The turning diameter of its rotor is longer than two American football fields end to end. Later models will be taller than any building on the mainland of Western Europe.

Packed with sensors gathering data on wind speeds, electricity output and stresses on its components, the giant whirling machine in the Netherlands is a test model for a new series of giant offshore wind turbines planned by General Electric. When assembled in arrays, the wind machines have the potential to power cities, supplanting the emissions-spewing coal- or natural gas-fired plants that form the backbones of many electric systems today.

GE has yet to install one of these machines in ocean water. As a relative newcomer to the offshore wind business, the company faces questions about how quickly and efficiently it can scale up production to build and install hundreds of the turbines.

But already the giant turbines have turned heads in the industry. A top executive at the world’s leading wind farm developer called it a “bit of a leapfrog over the latest technology.” And an analyst said the machine’s size and advance sales had “shaken the industry.”

The prototype is the first of a generation of new machines that are about a third more powerful than the largest already in commercial service. As such, it is changing the business calculations of wind equipment makers, developers and investors.

The GE machines will have a generating capacity that would have been almost unimaginable a decade ago. A single one will be able to turn out 13 megawatts of power, enough to light up a town of roughly 12,000 homes.

The turbine is capable of producing as much thrust as the four engines of a Boeing 747 jet, according to GE, and will be deployed at sea, where developers have learned that they can plant larger and more numerous turbines than on land to capture breezes that are stronger and more reliable.

The race to build bigger turbines has moved faster than many industry figures foresaw. GE’s Haliade-X generates almost 30 times more electricity than the first offshore machines installed off Denmark in 1991.

In coming years, customers are likely to demand even bigger machines, industry executives say. On the other hand, they predict that, just as commercial airliners peaked with the Airbus A380, turbines will reach a point at which greater size no longer makes economic sense.

“We will also reach a plateau; we just don’t know where it is yet,” said Morten Pilgaard Rasmussen, chief technology officer of the offshore wind unit of Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy, the leading maker of offshore turbines.

Although offshore turbines now account for only about 5% of the generating capacity of the overall wind industry, this part of the business has taken on an identity of its own and is expected to grow faster in the coming years than land-based wind.

Offshore technology took hold in Northern Europe in the last three decades and is now spreading to the East Coast of the United States as well as Asia, including Taiwan, China and South Korea. The big-ticket projects costing billions of dollars that are possible at sea are attracting large investors, including oil companies like BP and Royal Dutch Shell, that want to quickly enhance their green energy offerings. Capital investment in offshore wind has more than tripled over the last decade to $26 billion, according to the International Energy Agency, the Paris-based forecasting group.

GE began making inroads in wind power in 2002 when it bought Enron’s land-based turbine business — a successful unit in a company brought down in a spectacular accounting scandal — at a bankruptcy auction. It was a marginal force in the offshore industry when its executives decided to try to crack it about four years ago. They saw a growing market with only a couple of serious Western competitors.

Still, GE’s bosses figured that to become a leader in the more challenging marine environment, they needed to be audacious. They proceeded to more than double the size of their existing offshore machine, which came to GE through its acquisition of the power business of France’s Alstom in 2015. The idea was to gain a lead on key competitors like Siemens Gamesa and Vestas Wind Systems, the Danish-based turbine maker.

A larger turbine produces more electricity and, thus, more revenue than a smaller machine. Size also helps reduce the costs of building and maintaining a wind farm because fewer turbines are required to produce a given amount of power.

These qualities create a powerful incentive for developers to go for the largest machine available to aid their efforts to win the auctions for offshore power supply deals that many countries have adopted. These auctions vary in format, but developers compete to provide power over a number of years for the lowest price.

“What they are looking for is a turbine that allows them to win these auctions,” said Vincent Schellings, who has headed design and production of the GE turbine. “That is where turbine size plays a very important role.”

Among the early customers is Orsted, a Danish company that is the world’s largest developer of offshore wind farms. It has a preliminary agreement to buy about 90 of the Haliade-X machines for a project called Ocean Wind off Atlantic City, New Jersey.

“I think they surprised everybody when they came out with that machine,” said David Hardy, chief executive of Orsted’s offshore business in North America.

As a huge buyer of turbines, Orsted wants to help “establish this new platform and create some volume for GE” so as to promote competition and innovation, Hardy said.

The GE turbine is selling better than its competitors may have expected, analysts say.

On Dec. 1, GE reached another preliminary agreement to provide turbines for Vineyard Wind, a large wind farm off Massachusetts, and it has deals to supply 276 turbines to what is likely to be the world’s largest wind farm at Dogger Bank off Britain.

These deals, with accompanying maintenance contracts, could add up to $13 billion, estimates Shashi Barla, principal wind analyst at Wood Mackenzie, a market research firm.

The waves made by the GE machine have pushed Siemens Gamesa to announce a series of competing turbines. Vestas, which until recently had the industry’s biggest machine in its stable, is also expected to unveil a new entry soon.

“We didn’t move as the first one, and that of course we have to address today,” said Henrik Andersen, chief executive of Vestas.

To pull off its gambit, GE had to start “pretty much from scratch,” Schellings said. The business unit called GE Renewable Energy is spending about $400 million on design, hiring engineers and retooling factories at St. Nazaire and Cherbourg in France.

To make a blade of such extraordinary length that doesn’t buckle from its own weight, GE called on designers at LM Wind Power, a blade maker in Denmark that the company bought in 2016 for $1.7 billion. Among their innovations: a material combining carbon fiber and glass fiber that is lightweight yet strong and flexible.

GE still must work out how to manufacture large numbers of the machines efficiently, initially at the plants in France and, possibly later, in Britain and the United States. With a skimpy offshore track record, GE also needs to show that it can reliably install and maintain the big machines at sea, using specialized ships and dealing with rough weather.

“GE has to prove a lot to asset owners for them to procure GE turbines,” Barla said.

Bringing out bigger machines has been easier and cheaper for Siemens Gamesa, GE’s key rival, which is already building a prototype for a new and more powerful machine at its offshore complex at Brande on Denmark’s Jutland peninsula. The secret: The company’s ever-larger new models have not strayed far from a decade-old template.

“The fundamentals of the machine and how it works remain the same,” said Rasmussen, the unit’s chief technology officer, leading to a “starting point that was a little better” than GE’s.

There seems to be plenty of room for competition. John Lavelle, chief executive of GE’s offshore business, said the outlook for the market “gets bigger each year.”

 

Wild Weekend Weather - January 1, 2021

 A veritable weather smorgasbord is in store for this weekend. Lots of rain and windy conditions,

There could be up to five inches of rain in the lowlands through Sunday night, with nearly eight inches in the Olympic Mountain foothills.

All this rain will create some distinct hazards:

• A Flood Watch for the Skokomish River,
• Localized small stream or urban flooding from storm water runoff, and
• A Special Weather Statement for potential landslides because of saturated soils and unstable slopes, especially in the Hood Canal region.
• Saturated soils can loosen tree roots and make make trees more prone to being blown over in strong winds.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through tonight for Puget Sound and Hood Canal with possible wind gusts up to 30 MPH. A Gale Warning is scheduled for tomorrow morning for wind gusts 35 MPH or higher,

A Wind Advisory has been issued for tomorrow morning through late Saturday for Mason County. The National Weather Service says winds will be between 20 and 30 MPH, with possible gusts to 40 MPH.

Looking at the University of Washington weather model, midday Saturday appears to be the timing for the strongest Mason County wind.