Loss of dams would also significantly increase carbon
emissions and impacts to fragile economies
(PORTLAND, OR) – The removal of four lower Snake River dams
would cost the U.S. over $2.3 billion over the next 30 years, lead to
significant additional carbon emissions that contribute to climate change, and jeopardize
health, safety and livelihoods in already economically fragile local and
regional economies, according to an independent evaluation commissioned by the
Pacific Northwest Waterways Association.
The study was performed by financial and economic
consultants FCS Group to assess several impacts that would result if barging on
the Snake River is lost. Significant additional effects due to the loss of hydropower,
irrigation and other authorized uses would also occur, but are not captured in
this targeted report.
Carbon emissions equivalent to the cumulative emissions
generated by a Boardman coal-fired power plant every 5-6 years would result.
Breaching the Snake River dams would cause diesel fuel consumption to increase
by nearly 5 million gallons per year as barges are replaced by less efficient
truck-to-rail shipments. At least 201 additional unit trains and 23.8 million
miles in additional trucking activity would be required annually, resulting in
increases in CO2 and other harmful emissions by over 1.2 million tons per year.
Transportation and storage expense will likely increase 50%
to 100% for grain suppliers and shippers. At the current reported “break even”
cost per bushel of $5.00, the transportation/storage cost is now approximately
$0.40 per bushel of wheat. These costs could increase by up to $0.80 per bushel
with barging removed as a transportation option.
If farm subsidies are not increased, over 1,100 farms may be
at risk of bankruptcy. Average regional net farm cash income was only $42,825
in 2017. With wheat prices already down near the break-even point, the federal
government would need to increase annual direct payments to farmers by up to
$38.8 million to maintain current income levels.
Highway, rail and grain elevator networks would need over
$1.6 billion in capital investment. If barging were removed from the Snake
River, new infrastructure or costly upgrades would be needed to accommodate the
displaced cargo. This includes hundreds of miles of shortline rail track that
have been abandoned, new rail, major highway improvements, and retrofits for
grain elevators that do not have rail loading capabilities.
Essential health, sanitation and safety would be
jeopardized, along with other public services. As observed in the 1992 Snake
River drawdown experiment, existing wastewater infrastructure is likely to be damaged
or rendered useless if the river level drops, requiring new investments in
water intakes, filtration and pumping/transmission systems for a number of
cities, counties and major industrial businesses. Roadways, public docks and
other infrastructure that are adjacent to the river would also be damaged or
rendered useless. Safety is also a major concern, with additional rail and
truck traffic leading to corresponding increases in accidents and fatalities.
The impacts would be socially unjust and target fragile
economies. The 10 counties most impacted by a dam breaching scenario are
primarily rural areas in which 1 in 5 people are already at or below the
federal poverty level, and average wages are 25% below the national average.
Dam breaching would have a negative regional economic impact on agriculture,
manufacturing, transportation, warehousing and tourism businesses that are
physically or functionally related to freight movement and river access.
“Dam breaching extremists talk about how easy and inexpensive
it would be to compensate Washington, Oregon and Idaho businesses and residents
if the lower Snake River dams were removed,” said PNWA Executive Director
Kristin Meira. “We commissioned this study to show federal and state decision
makers the real economic and environmental impacts on real people and
communities that would result.”
The complete study is available on the PNWA website at https://www.pnwa.net/energy-salmon/.
