Saturday, September 28, 2013

Weather Forecast and Special Weather Statement from National Weather Service

Weather forecast and summary for the weekend:



Today
Rain. The rain could be heavy at times. High near 61.
South southwest wind 13 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Tonight
Showers. The rain could be heavy at times. Low around 52. Breezy, with a southwest wind 14 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Sunday
Rain. High near 59. South wind 15 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Sunday Night
Showers. The rain could be heavy at times. Low around 49. Breezy, with a south southeast wind 22 to 25 mph becoming southwest in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Now to the special weather statement as of late yesterday:

Synopsis:

Saturday will see increasing rainfall, heavy at times, ahead of a strong Pacific cold front that will reach the Washington coast Saturday afternoon, and then move inland through Puget Sound and the Cascades Saturday night.  Winds will pick up as the day wears on, with the strongest winds occurring just ahead of, and with the front. Rain rates will ease behind the front, however, moist westerly flow aloft will maintain precipitation through the day Sunday. A second, strong front will reach western Washington Sunday night. This front has the potential to produce the strongest winds of the two weekend storm systems. In addition to the stronger winds, it will bring another round of enhanced rainfall to the area, especially over the mountains. Snow levels behind the front on Monday could drop as low as 5000 feet, which would impact the highest mountain passes in the Cascades.

Mason County Observations as of 12:30 PM




September 28, 2013
Mason County Observations as of 12:30 PM

Location
Rain (from midnight)
Wind gusts
Arcadia Point
1.03 inches

Belfair
1 inch
18 MPH
Grapeview
.94 inch
12 MPH
Lake Cushman
1.5 inches

Mason Lake
.96 inch

Matlock
1.5 inches

Phillips Lake
1.09
12 MPH
Shelton
1.3 inches
24 MPH

2013-09-28 - Weather Outlook for This Weekend



OK, so we have the special weather statement, a flood watch, a high wind watch, and a small craft advisory for the inland waters of western Washington.

Good grief, what's next....boils, frogs, flies, pestilence. Sheesh.

Starting with the forecast for the next two days. The original forecast anticipated most of the windy conditions to occur Saturday. Now it looks as if that will continue into Sunday:

Today
Rain. The rain could be heavy at times. High near 61.
South southwest wind 13 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Tonight
Showers. The rain could be heavy at times. Low around 52. Breezy, with a southwest wind 14 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Sunday
Rain. High near 59. South wind 15 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Sunday Night
Showers. The rain could be heavy at times. Low around 49. Breezy, with a south southeast wind 22 to 25 mph becoming southwest in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Now to the special weather statement as of late yesterday:

Synopsis:

Saturday will see increasing rainfall, heavy at times, ahead of a strong Pacific cold front that will reach the Washington coast Saturday afternoon, and then move inland through Puget Sound and the Cascades Saturday night.  Winds will pick up as the day wears on, with the strongest winds occurring just ahead of, and with the front. Rain rates will ease behind the front, however, moist westerly flow aloft will maintain precipitation through the day Sunday. A second, strong front will reach western Washington Sunday night. This front has the potential to produce the strongest winds of the two weekend storm systems. In addition to the stronger winds, it will bring another round of enhanced rainfall to the area, especially over the mountains. Snow levels behind the front on Monday could drop as low as 5000 feet, which would impact the highest mountain passes in the Cascades.

Overall, heavy rain and wind remain the primary impacts of these two storm systems.

Storm Characteristics:

Rainfall (Saturday and Sunday):
Coast - 3 to 5 inches
Mountains - 5 to 10 inches with the highest amounts over the Olympics, North Cascades and around Mount Rainier

Interior / I-5 corridor - 2 to 4 inches (less in the rain shadow from Sequim to Admiralty Inlet)

  • This amount of rain will push the flood prone rivers of western Washington up to near flood stage. The rivers with the most potential for flooding at this point are the Skokomish, Puyallup ( near Orting ), Stillaguamish ( at Arlington ), the Skagit (near Concrete), and the Nooksack ( at North Cedarville ) could also reach flood stage beginning Saturday evening. A flood watch has been issued for all of Western Washington except Island County and the San Juan Islands.
  •  Heavy rain will lead to brief localized flooding in poorly drained areas as well as ponding of waters on roadways.

Wind (Saturday):
In advance of the front on Saturday gales are expected over the coastal and northern inland waters. Land areas near the coast and in places such as the Admiralty Inlet area, the San Juan islands, Bellingham and the Skagit delta will experience sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 40 to 45 mph. For most of the Puget Sound lowlands (including the Seattle metro area) and the Southwest Interior, south winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph are likely, but a few communities south of Joint Base Lewis McChord such as Yelm and Rainier could see higher wind gusts around 45-50 mph.

Wind (Sunday):

HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT

Local wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph will occur with a strong front this afternoon. Another stronger weather system will arrive around Sunday evening, with a chance of damaging high winds over portions of western Washington.

1053 AM PDT SAT SEP 28 2013

The National Weather Service in Seattle has issued a high wind watch, which is in effect from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night.

Some affected locations, Bangor, Hood Canal Bridge, Lofall.

  • Timing, a strong front will reach the area around Sunday evening.
  • Wind, late Sunday afternoon and night south winds of 40 mph   with gusts to 60 mph are possible with a strong front.
  • Impacts, damaging winds are possible late Sunday afternoon and   night.

A high wind watch means there is the potential for a damaging wind event.

In advance of the front late Sunday afternoon gales are expected over the coastal and northern inland waters. Land areas near the coast and in places such as the Admiralty Inlet area, the San Juan islands, Bellingham and the Skagit delta will experience sustained winds of 20 to 35 mph with gusts of 40 to 50 mph. For most of the Puget Sound lowlands (including the Seattle metro area) and the Southwest Interior, south winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph are likely, but a few communities south of Joint Base Lewis McChord such as Yelm and Rainier could see higher wind gusts around 45-50 mph.

  • Deciduous trees are still filled with green leaves.  This increases the exposure of these trees to strong wind.  Expect more tree damage and downed tree branches than you would normally expect for winds of this strength.
  • Wind events of this magnitude can produce isolated power outages.

Snow Level:

Will remain well above pass levels through Sunday evening, then falling as low as 5000 feet on Monday.  This could bring the slushy snow accumulations to high mountain locations such as Artist Point, Paradise, Sunrise, Chinook Pass, and Hurricane Ridge.

Timing:

Heaviest rainfall will occur Saturday afternoon and evening, and then again Sunday night

Winds will be strongest just ahead of and with each of the fronts, the second front on Sunday night is expected to produce the strongest winds.

Lowest Snow Levels will occur on Monday.

Forecast Confidence:

Confidence is higher that these two storms systems will produce significant precipitation over the region, producing rises on area rivers with potential for minor flooding on some area rivers. In addition, confidence is higher that these fronts will produce windy conditions for portions of western Washington, especially for the Coast, Admiralty inlet area, San Juan Islands and North Interior on Sunday night.

Confidence is lower for the specific timing and location of the heaviest rainfall. 

Uncertainties:

Even after last weekend's wind, trees remain foliated, which can greatly enhance the impacts from wind even at sub criteria levels.

Screen Capture - 5 PM September 29


Screen Capture - 8 PM Sunday Sept 29


Thursday, September 26, 2013

Wednesday, September 25, 2013

Record Run Leads to Relaxation of Last Columbia Salmon Fishing Rules (Oregonian, Portland, OR)

Proposed Power Lines Tangle with Native American History in the Pacific Northwest (National Public Radio)

Editorial: Fixing Washington State's Energy Independence Act Requires Action, Not Words (Tri-City Herald, WA)

Rising Sea Levels, Storms Could Devastate Washington Towns (KOMO-TV, Seattle, WA)

Google: 'Rare' Network Failure Triggered Gmail Delays (Mashable)

Energy News Digest Word Cloud for September 25, 2013


Tuesday, September 24, 2013

Columbia River’s Contaminated ‘Resident’ Fish Dangerous, Say Oregon Health Authorities (Oregonian, Portland, OR)

Apple Eyes More Land, Prineville Data Center Expansion (Oregonian, Portland, OR)

Solar-Industry Group Offers Plan to End China Tariff Fight - Dispute threatens 500-employee REC Silicon plant in Central Washington (Seattle Times - Paywall Advisory)

Opponents Ramp up Fight against Obama Climate Plan (Associated Press)

Helicopter Clips Power Lines in Douglas County - Knocks Out Power (Wenatchee World, WA)

Energy News Digest Word Cloud for September 24, 2013