Agency estimates
a 50 percent chance for 2013 wind displacements
(Portland,
OR) -- The Bonneville Power Administration has refined
its process for ensuring transmission system reliability and protecting fish
when there is too much power for the region to consume. The agency filed its
revised process, called the Oversupply Management Protocol, with the Federal
Energy Regulatory Commission today.
BPA also
modified its analysis for estimating the likelihood of oversupply conditions
and conducted an updated analysis for 2013. This year, BPA projects a 50
percent probability of oversupply conditions leading to displacement under OMP,
compared to a 65 percent probability in the 2012 study. The agency projects
this year’s oversupply costs could be $10 million, but under extreme conditions
costs could exceed $50 million.
According to the
Northwest River Forecast Center, the current water supply forecast for
January-July is 86 percent of normal. If this forecast holds, the likelihood
and expected costs of wind displacement could be lower; however, conditions can
quickly change. BPA will continue to monitor forecasts throughout the spring
and manage oversupply conditions with the most operationally feasible and
cost-effective means available.
Two other
factors are prominent in this year’s decrease in probability. First, the
region’s only nuclear plant, Columbia Generating Station, will be down for
about six weeks for refueling. Also, BPA added the contribution of non-Treaty
storage, additional water storage in Canadian dams beyond the amount required
in the Columbia River Treaty, to the analysis. See “Potential for wind
displacement in 2013” for more information at the link.
Under the
oversupply policy, generators who elect to submit costs and supporting data are
reimbursed for payments they would otherwise receive for producing power.
In late January,
BPA provided proposed OMP changes to customers and stakeholders for review.
Based on those comments and other factors, BPA made changes to the protocol,
including:
- Extension for the period of use through Sept. 30, 2015;
- A March 15 annual deadline for generators to submit cost information to an independent third party. If this information is not provided by that date, that generator’s costs are assumed to be zero.
BPA did not
specify an expiration date for the policy in the draft it shared with customers
and stakeholders in January. However, due to a number of comments asking BPA to
reconsider that issue, the agency elected to limit the policy’s duration to the
2014-2015 rate period.
In March 2012,
BPA filed the original Oversupply Management Protocol with FERC as Attachment P
to its broader Open Access Transmission Tariff. In December 2012, FERC issued a
ruling conditionally accepting the Oversupply Management Protocol contingent
upon BPA submitting an acceptable cost allocation methodology. FERC rejected
BPA’s proposal to allocate reimbursement costs equally between power customers
and generators that elect compensation under the protocol. FERC’s ruling
required BPA to file a different cost allocation methodology within 90 days of
the December ruling. Early this year, BPA requested a stay of that order, which
would allow the agency to continue its ongoing oversupply rate case, scheduled
to conclude in July. FERC accepted this request, and the rate case continues.
In 2011, BPA
displaced approximately 97,500 megawatt-hours of generation with energy from
the hydro system. BPA’s policy at that time, called Environmental Redispatch,
did not include a mechanism to reimburse generators for the cost of
displacement. In 2012, the OMP replaced Environmental Redispatch, and BPA
displaced approximately 47,000 MWh of generation with energy from the hydro
system at a cost of $2.7 million.
BPA is a
nonprofit federal agency that markets renewable hydropower from federal
Columbia River dams, operates three-quarters of high-voltage transmission lines
in the Northwest and funds one of the largest wildlife protection and
restoration programs in the world. BPA and its partners have also saved enough
electricity through energy efficiency projects to power four large American
cities. For more information, contact us at 503-230-5131 or visit our website
at www.bpa.gov.
